Didier Sornette 教授
是瑞士蘇黎世聯邦理工大學(ETH Zurich)企業風險教授,瑞士金融研究院(Swiss Finance Institute)金融教授,全球金融危機監測站主任,美國促進科學會院士、世界創新基金會院士。Sornette教授在復雜系統與風險管理領域是世界級的專家,運用嚴謹的數據驅動的數理統計分析方法,對復雜系統不穩定性和各類極端風險進行識別、控制和預測。在眾多研究成果中,他以對“金融泡沫”的研究尤其出名,曾成功預測到2007年房地產泡沫破裂、08年石油泡沫破裂、09年上證指數泡沫破裂、15年瑞朗脫鉤歐元、15年中國股災等多次市場巨變。他還將成果成功應用到了地震預測、網絡信息安全、社會網絡、核安全、醫學等一系列復雜系統中。Sornette教授發表了800余篇論文,出版了7本專著,被引次數超過35000次。他還曾在多家世界知名航空航天企業、銀行、基金和再保險公司擔任過專家顧問等角色,包括美國銀行首席風險顧問,美國洛斯阿拉莫斯國家實驗室專家顧問,法國再保險SCOR科學基金會董事會成員等。
內容梗概
In the late 1970s to beginning 1980s, an epoch changing transition occurred, unnoticed by most. This transition corresponds to a change from a productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s to what I will refer to as the regime of the “illusion of the perpetual money machine”. The result has been a succession of a number of massive bubbles and crashes, all developing jointly and feeding on each other until 2008. The bad news is that, since the great crisis and recession of 2008 and following aftershocks, the spirit of a “perpetual money machine” has been further developed into a regime of very moderate growth at the cost of ever increasing relative debt. This “new normal” heralds a period of global growing inequality and inter-generation conflicts, as well as grooms social crises and even more serious disruptions and conflicts. This situation may be further aggravated in the next decade by an increase in financialization, through exchange-traded-funds (ETFs), speed and automation, through algorithmic trading and public debt, and through growing unfunded liabilities. We conclude that, to get out of this catch-22 situation, we should first better manage and understand the incentive structures in our society. Second, we need to focus our efforts on our real economy and launch massive programs to support really disruptive and creative innovations, which come both with enormous risks and rewards. Here, the public sector has a fundamental role, as it had during the previous industrial revolution and the economic boom following WWII. We need a WWII-type effort in R&D and innovation to rebook the economies of the World. In this respect, China seems particularly well positioned as we will overview.
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